with Project Blackjack · Project Blackjack
LenderHawk analysis. Not affiliated with or endorsed by Acquisitions Anonymous.
The business scaled from $17.2 million of revenue and $2.0 million of EBITDA in 2020 to a projected $30.8 million of revenue and $7.2 million of EBITDA in 2023.
The hosts think the company likely wins by pairing SEO with paid influencer/affiliate relationships rather than through a unique instructional product alone.
A martial-arts-at-home model can work because customers can buy progress, ranking, and community digitally even if the activity is partly physical.
The implied marketing/affiliate spend is likely large because the business produces only about 12% EBITDA margins on very high gross revenue.
The likely buyer is not a lone small-business operator; the structure sounds more like growth equity or private equity with a rollover by current management.
The founders appear to want liquidity plus a strategic partner, which usually means a minority or majority recap rather than a clean full exit.
The hosts view the concept as replicable into adjacent niches if the same influencer/SEO playbook can be repeated.
The business could be vulnerable if its top keyword rankings, instructor relationships, or affiliate channels weaken.
The hosts describe a business model where search visibility and paid relationships with niche influencers create demand, even when the underlying content is not hard to copy. The economic moat comes from traffic and distribution rather than from the content library itself.
When to use: Use this lens when evaluating digital education or content businesses that depend on organic search and creator partnerships.
Revenue grew from $17.2 million in 2020 to $21 million in 2021, $26 million in 2022, and a projected $30.8 million in 2023.
The broker teaser presents four years of rapid top-line growth.
EBITDA rose from $2 million in 2020 to $3.5 million in 2021, $5.6 million in 2022, and a projected $7.2 million in 2023.
The listing shows widening profitability alongside growth.
The 2020 EBITDA margin was about 12%, based on $2 million of EBITDA on $17.2 million of revenue.
Heather and Michael use the reported financials to frame profitability.
The platform charges about $40 per month for Taekwondo access, or roughly $480 per year.
Michael checks the live site to understand the customer price point.
The site also charges $60 for video review tied to rank advancement.
The hosts infer monetization beyond the subscription itself.
One of the martial arts videos they found had 44 million views, and another had 2.2 million views.
They point to YouTube demand and creator reach as part of the distribution story.
Michael estimates a 7x to 8x EBITDA valuation range, roughly $50 million to $60 million, for the business at its current size.
He gives a rough private-equity-style valuation view based on projected 2023 EBITDA.
Treat heavily digital, growthy businesses as a recapitalization candidate rather than a simple SBA buyout when management wants to stay involved.
Why: The current owners appear to want liquidity and a strategic partner, which fits a PE-style structure better than a full-control retail acquisition.
Underwrite affiliate and influencer dependency explicitly before buying a digital course business.
Why: The hosts believe the economics may be driven by expensive commission payments that can disappear if distribution partners change.
Stress-test the durability of SEO rankings for the core search terms.
Why: The business appears to capture demand through search visibility, so traffic concentration is a meaningful operating risk.
Assume the content library is not the moat if the category can be replicated quickly.
Why: Michael notes that adjacent niches could be attacked with the same playbook if the distribution engine is portable.
Match the buyer profile to the growth profile: a platform with $7.2 million of EBITDA and continued owner involvement needs more sophisticated capital than a first-time operator usually brings.
Why: The likely transaction structure and scale point to private equity or growth equity, not a standard small-business acquisition.
Heather compares this listing to an online Pilates class library she reviewed about a year and a half earlier. That business survived after COVID but never reached this scale, which helps illustrate how much larger the martial-arts niche appears to be.
Lesson: Adjacent digital fitness categories can look similar but have very different market size and traction.
Michael describes accounts that publish lifestyle or wisdom content, then push readers to Gumroad products through affiliate links. He uses it as a parallel for how niche creators can generate recurring commissions by driving traffic to simple digital products.
Lesson: In digital content businesses, the distribution layer can matter more than the product itself.