with Crumbl Cookies locations · Crumbl Cookies
LenderHawk analysis. Not affiliated with or endorsed by Acquisitions Anonymous.
A 4.0x SDE multiple on a trendy franchise can still feel expensive if the demand curve may be peaking rather than compounding.
Normalized numbers on a brand-new unit deserve skepticism when the seller is effectively projecting the first few months down to a steadier run rate.
A small local market caps upside for a concept that may already have captured most of its nearby demand.
Strong review counts can support the story, but they do not eliminate the risk that a fad-driven category eventually cools.
Retail franchises are much harder to manage remotely, so relocation can be a legitimate exit reason rather than a pure red flag.
Franchise systems that limit unit counts can create resale friction because neighboring operators may not be able to buy additional stores.
The best underwriting question is not whether the concept is popular today, but whether it can still be attractive after the initial hype wave fades.
The hosts compare franchise concepts that can remain durable for decades with concepts that can quickly become obsolete once consumer attention shifts. Crumbl is analyzed as sitting somewhere between a stable evergreen brand and a fading fad.
When to use: Use this when evaluating consumer franchises whose value depends heavily on ongoing cultural relevance.
The listing asked $1.85 million for two Crumbl locations.
Michael reads the teaser economics from the BizBuySell listing.
The seller claimed $463,000 of normalized SDE on just under $2.0 million of normalized revenue.
The hosts debate whether the normalized numbers are sustainable, especially for a recently opened store.
One location opened in 2022 and the second opened in May 2024.
The teaser frames the deal as two stores with different operating histories.
The Olympia-Lacey area was described as an MSA of about 250,000 people.
The hosts use the market size to question growth runway.
The cookie price shown for the local menu was $5 per cookie.
Bill and Heather use the price point to underscore the brand’s indulgent positioning.
The first store had about 1,300 reviews after roughly three years.
The hosts cite review volume as evidence of meaningful customer traction.
The franchise system was described as having 1,000-plus U.S. locations and being sold out.
The teaser suggests strong brand momentum and no easy path to opening new stores everywhere.
Discount normalized earnings aggressively on a brand-new retail unit until you can verify the stabilization curve from independent data.
Why: The seller’s own normalization may overstate steady-state performance when the opening spike is still rolling off.
Check SBA loan performance data for the franchise concept before relying on brand hype or social-media popularity.
Why: Public SBA data can reveal whether real operators are surviving the debt service, not just whether the concept is trendy.
Treat remote ownership as a serious negative for a hands-on retail concept.
Why: The operating model here depends on local execution and cannot be managed as passively as a pure online business.
Price trend-sensitive franchise resales closer to the low end of the valuation range unless the market and unit economics are clearly proving longevity.
Why: A concept with potential fad risk deserves a margin of safety.
Investigate whether the franchisor restricts multi-unit ownership before assuming a buyer pool among existing franchisees.
Why: If operators are capped on store count, the exit market may be smaller than the headline brand popularity implies.
Michael describes ordering an In-N-Out trip in Los Angeles and accidentally ending up at the wrong location because the airport-area restaurant routing is confusing. The mistake turned a plane-watching outing into a frustrating detour inside LAX traffic.
Lesson: Strong consumer brands can create destination behavior, but logistics and location details still matter when you are trying to capture that demand.
Michael recalls operating a coffee concept and talking with franchise consultants about whether to target single-unit or multi-unit franchisees. He says the exercise taught him that franchise systems need to be designed around a specific operator profile rather than trying to serve everyone.
Lesson: Franchise growth strategy changes materially depending on whether the system is built for single-unit owners or professional multi-unit operators.